Above normal monsoon

India’s official weather forecasting agency, IMD, has said that the monsoon is likely to be “above normal” and likely to be 106% of the average of 89 cm.

• Monsoon rains within 96% and 104 %per cent of this average are considered “normal” in the terminology of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Several reasons underlie the IMD’s optimism:

A major reason for the good outlook this year was the weakening of El Nino, which is expected to dissipate during or before the monsoon season. El Nino, an abnormal warming of surface waters in the east-central Pacific that drives weather changes across the globe, is seen to have depressed the last two monsoons in India.

Another meteorological phenomenon known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — where the western portions of the Indian Ocean are warmer than the east and thereby push rain-bearing clouds over India — is also likely to form during the middle of the monsoon season, according to the IMD.